This Epidemic Is Over in Poland, but Infections Have Not Ended, Expert Claims

Krzysztof Szczawiński posted the information that the epidemic in Poland had already ended on his Facebook profile on 1 April:

In subsequent posts, the independent analyst maintains his claim that the epidemic in Poland has ended and bases it on further data. Here is the post from 11 April:

I would like to remind you of a few basic points, because I can see that they are getting lost in discussions and that we are confusing basic concepts:

1) we cannot try to stop SINGLE INFECTIONS, because that CANNOT BE DONE – it has not been achieved so far and it will not be achieved – the only thing we can do is stop the EPIDEMIC, meaning prevent the number of infections from growing in a way that leaves us unable to cope with it (exponentially), as well as protect the elderly and the most vulnerable and treat the sick...

2) what is currently ending is the epidemic – this epidemic – not infections, which still exist and will continue to exist

3) the epidemic is ending because around half of society has already encountered this virus, and several million more people have been vaccinated, giving us more than 20 million immune people; combined with the end of the cold season, when such viruses spread most, this gives us herd immunity, which causes the epidemic to fade away (not that there will be no more infections)

4) unfortunately, it was impossible to avoid a large part of society coming into contact with the virus, and this was not avoided in practically any Western country, so trying to suppress it uniformly among everyone only made it last longer and caused the virus to affect all groups equally, including many elderly and vulnerable people. As a result, we had such an enormous number of deaths, instead of focusing on protecting the elderly and vulnerable and allowing the wave of infections to pass through the young and healthy, because the sooner and in greater proportion young people became immune, the less the elderly would be affected – and these were the main findings of my work from more than a year ago, a model that made it possible to distinguish between these groups – and unfortunately we did not do this, so my worst forecasts concerning the number of infections and deaths were fully confirmed...

5) so not only did we achieve nothing (the number of deaths was higher than it would have been had we done nothing, because then the wave of infections would have passed more quickly and affected fewer elderly and vulnerable people, while young people would have gained immunity from the earlier strains rather than the current, worse ones...), but for more than a year we have also paid an enormous cost, deprived children of a year of school and normal life, subjected everyone to immense trauma and destroyed millions of lives – a gigantic tragedy that the people who tried to reach decision-makers with this message and understanding were unable to prevent...
Yes, at this enormous cost we achieved nothing, and knowing more than a year ago that this was exactly what would happen, I did everything I could so that we could avoid it...

And now this epidemic is already ending, as I have been showing in the charts I have been attaching here for 10 days...

In his latest post, from 13 April, the mathematician criticises those in power for scaremongering and distorting reality, while continuing to maintain that the epidemic in Poland has ended:

Today we have a beautiful example of the reality-distorting way in which they are constantly trying to frighten us – Minister Niedzielski speaks of a “very dynamic increase in infections”, while this actually concerns a higher number of positive test results than there were on Tuesday a week ago, meaning tests carried out on Easter Monday!!

It is obvious that there are more of them, just as it is always the case that more are reported on Tuesday than on Monday... But any pretext is good enough to scare people, because how many people will go and check these figures... Whereas today there are far fewer positive results than on the comparable Tuesday two weeks ago – and that is the case in every voivodeship! There are also fewer than three weeks ago, and even fewer than four weeks ago...

I really have no words for these people anymore, because I have been looking closely at such behaviour for more than a year, but you can see for yourselves...
And for two weeks now I have consistently repeated that this epidemic in Poland has already ended, and I am pleased that the mainstream media have also picked up this information.

Who is Krzysztof Szczawiński?

As we read on the medonet.pl website:

(...) he is an independent expert and a graduate of the Paris Ecole Polytechnique, where he studied mathematics; he also completed Ecole Nationale d’Administration and studied at the philosophy department of the Sorbonne. For many years he worked as an analyst at investment banks (Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan) and hedge funds in London.

In spring last year, the expert was asked to present his shield model to the National Development Council at the President of the Republic of Poland’s office. Szczawiński called the model he developed the Great National Immunity-Building Programme.