Platforma staffers are surprised because the situation at 9:00 p.m. has changed completely. Karol Nawrocki is in first place, not Rafał Trzaskowski.
1st place – Karol Nawrocki 51%
2nd place – Rafał Trzaskowski 49%
Official data from the PKW
Data from 01:55 – 23,472 of 32,143 precincts counted (73.02%)
- Karol Nawrocki (7,380,044) 53.29%
- Rafał Trzaskowski (6,469,772) 46.71%
Exit poll, late poll and margin of error
A late poll is an update of an exit poll using official protocols from the same precincts. It is even more accurate because it eliminates the problem of refusals to participate and sampling. Statistical error is unavoidable because Ipsos relies on a sample rather than a complete count of voters. Refusals to participate, weather conditions and meticulous adherence to procedure may affect accuracy. In a very close contest, an exit poll tends to show a trend rather than a definitive outcome—the final result is always confirmed by the PKW after all votes have been counted.