We present the results of the exit poll, prepared by IPSOS for TVP, TVN and Polsat:
- Trzaskowski – 30.8%
- Nawrocki – 29.1%
- Mentzen – 15.4%
- Braun – 6.2%
- Zandberg – 5.2%
- Hołownia – 4.8%
- Biejat – 4.1%
- Senyszyn – 1.3%
- Stanowski – 1.3%
- Jakubiak – 0.8%
- Maciak – 0.4%
- Bartoszewicz – 0.5%
- Woch – 0.1%
Exit poll – what is it and how does it work?
An exit poll is a survey conducted on election day directly at the exits of polling stations. Interviewers randomly ask every nth voter (usually every 10th) leaving the station whom they voted for, and respondents independently place the completed, anonymous ballot in a special ballot box. The aim is to quickly estimate the percentage of support for candidates/committees and turnout – the results are known just minutes after polling stations close, long before the National Electoral Commission (PKW) announces its data.
Why is an exit poll so valuable?
Forecast + context – besides voting results, the survey provides extensive information about the structure of electorates (gender, age, education and place of residence), voter flows between previous and current elections, and turnout in individual groups. PKW does not publish this information. (Ipsos)
Speed and accuracy – with a well-designed sample, the statistical error averages ±2 percentage points, allowing the result to be reproduced very precisely on election night.
Key differences between an exit poll and a pre-election poll
Timing of data collection – preference polls are conducted weeks or days before voting, when some respondents are still undecided. An exit poll is conducted after the vote has been cast, when the decision is final. Respondent selection – an exit poll includes only people who actually voted; a traditional poll includes adult citizens regardless of whether they will go to the polls.
How are representativeness and reliability ensured?
Random selection of polling stations – Ipsos selects approximately 800–900 precinct commissions from across Poland using a stratified proportional method (voivodeship × locality size), excluding closed and foreign precincts.
Interviewers’ work – a pair or trio of interviewers is on duty at each selected polling station, inviting respondents according to an established rule (e.g. every 10th voter).
Data collection and transmission – paper questionnaires are immediately coded in a mobile application, and the records flow in real time to a central system, where a team of several dozen analysts checks quality and calculates preliminary results.
Exit poll, late poll and margin of error
A late poll is an update of the exit poll using official protocols from the same commissions – it is even more accurate because it eliminates the problem of refusals to participate and sampling. Statistical error is unavoidable because Ipsos relies on a sample rather than a complete count of voters. When differences are small (e.g. a committee with 5.1% support against a 5% threshold), the ±2 percentage-point margin must be taken into account and the results interpreted cautiously. Refusals to participate, weather conditions or strict adherence to the procedure may affect accuracy. In a very close contest, an exit poll is more likely to show a trend than a certain outcome – the final result is always confirmed by PKW after all votes have been counted.