What can we expect?

  • Heavy rainfall: It is forecast that 100 to as much as 200 mm of rain may fall over several days, equivalent to two or three months' worth of rainfall for this time of year. The Silesian, Lesser Poland and Subcarpathian Voivodeships, as well as parts of Mazovia and central Poland, are particularly at risk. The farther west, the lighter the rainfall is expected to be.
  • Risk of local flooding and floods: After a period of drought, the soil is parched and has a limited ability to absorb such large amounts of water. This increases the risk of local flooding of roads, basements and properties, as well as a rapid rise in river levels, especially in mountainous and urbanised catchments. IMGW has already issued hydrological warnings.
  • Thunderstorms and strong winds: The low may be accompanied by thunderstorms with hail, locally with large stones up to 3 cm in diameter, and wind gusts of 70–100 km/h or even local tornadoes.
  • Cooling: A significant drop in temperature is expected with the low.

The Genoa Low and the 2024 floods

The Genoa Low contributed to intense rainfall and flooding in Poland and neighbouring countries in September 2024. Therefore, the current forecasts are causing considerable concern, and the services recommend following weather announcements and exercising particular caution.

At present, from 7 to 13 July 2025, RCB has issued a statement warning of a flood threat, especially in southern and partly central Poland, where forecast rainfall totals may be very high. Kraków Mayor Aleksander Miszalski has also raised the alarm about the threat and the preparations of city services.

Are Bolesławiec, Bolesławiec County and neighbouring counties at risk?

Lower Silesia is named as one of the regions potentially threatened by the Genoa Low.

Although the main impact and the highest rainfall totals are forecast for voivodeships such as Silesian, Lesser Poland, Subcarpathian, Lublin, Łódź and Mazovian, Lower Silesia is also within the risk zone.

What the current forecasts and warnings mean for Lower Silesia:

  • Local heavy rainfall: Although the western voivodeships may be “brushed” by only the western edge of the low, forecasts for Lower Silesia still indicate the possibility of 80–120 mm of rain; if the low becomes blocked, a scenario considered by some models, such as GEM/ACCESS, the totals could rise to 150 mm or even more.
  • Risk of local flooding and flash floods: After a period of drought, the soil absorbs water poorly, increasing the risk of rapid runoff. This may lead to local flooding, especially in urbanised areas, as well as sudden rises in the levels of small rivers and streams.
  • Mountain and upland catchments: With its mountain ranges and uplands, Lower Silesia is particularly vulnerable to rapid rises in river levels in these areas, which may result in warning levels, or even alarm levels, being exceeded.
    IMGW and RCB warnings: The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management and the Government Centre for Security have issued hydrological and meteorological warnings, including for Lower Silesian Voivodeship.
  • Wody Polskie reassures: The Regional Water Management Authority in Wrocław (RZGW) reports that the situation at the flood-control reservoirs in the region is stable, and all facilities have flood reserves greater than the minimum required. This is positive information for major rivers, but it does not eliminate the risk of local flooding and flash floods on smaller watercourses.
  • An analogy with September 2024: In September 2024, also under the influence of the Genoa Low, Lower Silesia, Opole Voivodeship and Silesia experienced serious flooding. This is a reminder that the region is vulnerable to such phenomena.

Stay vigilant

Although Bolesławiec is not at the epicentre of the heaviest forecast rainfall, it is nevertheless part of a voivodeship covered by warnings. Follow weather announcements and alerts, as well as local news on istotne.pl. Secure your property, especially if you live in low-lying areas or near rivers and streams.