Group of death?

Even before Poland secured qualification for the European Championship in Germany, opinions emerged that, even if they won the playoffs, the White and Reds would end up in one of the toughest groups of the tournament. Poland’s opponents will include France, the Netherlands and Austria. Two of these three teams are considered candidates to win the entire competition. Some experts also believe that Austria could be the tournament’s dark horse. This only shows how difficult a task awaits the Poles on German soil.

It could even be said that if the format of the group-stage competition had not been changed at the European Championship, allowing even a team finishing third to advance, our team’s chances of qualifying would be illusory. According to bookmakers offering Euro 2024 bets, France and the Netherlands are clear group favourites, while even Austria is rated higher than Poland.

Group composition:

  • France
  • The Netherlands
  • Austria
  • Poland

Poland vs the Netherlands

Poland will begin its campaign on German soil with a match against the Netherlands. In recent years, the teams met in the Nations League, with their first encounter in Rotterdam ending in a draw, while the Oranje players proved superior in the return match at the National Stadium. Overall, the head-to-head statistics between these teams are unfavourable for Poland. The White and Reds have not won any of their previous 11 matches against this opponent, with their last victory coming in 1979. The Netherlands are therefore clear favourites here, and any result other than a win for this team would be considered a surprise.

This could nevertheless be a key match for Poland. The Poles should seek at least a draw in this encounter to improve their chances of potentially finishing third in the group. Let us recall that at the last European Championship, it was possible to advance with as few as three points. If the White and Reds drew with this opponent, it would certainly boost their confidence ahead of the matches against Austria and France.

Poland statistics:

  • Poland are unbeaten under Michał Probierz.
  • The Poles qualified for Euro 2024 after winning the playoffs.
  • Poland have drawn three of their last five matches.
  • The Poles have conceded only one goal in their last three matches.
  • Poland’s last defeat came against Albania.

Poland vs Austria

In their second European Championship match on German soil, Poland will face Austria. Before the tournament begins, this appears to be a key match in terms of qualifying from the group. The Poles performed reasonably well against this opponent during the most recent qualifying campaign for the tournament in 2021, but much has changed in both teams since then. The Austrians are currently at a significantly higher level, which is why some people consider this team a candidate to be the tournament’s dark horse.

Austria performed excellently in qualifying for this tournament, losing only one match, against Belgium. The Austrians managed to beat Sweden twice and also draw one of their matches with Belgium. This only shows that the team’s development in recent years has been noticeable, as can also be seen in the individual abilities of its players. The strength of this team comes primarily from Bundesliga stars and players from clubs such as Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig.

If the Poles want to qualify for the next round, they must win this match, because it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which our players defeat France in the final match.

Poland vs France

In their final group-stage match at the European Championship, Poland will face France. Euro 2024 bookmakers overwhelmingly indicate here that our opponents are the favourites to win the match. Let us recall that the two teams met during the last World Cup in Qatar, where France proved superior in the knockout stage. The Poles did not play poorly then, however, and had their chances to trouble the eventual finalist.

Given that this will be the final group-stage match and that France are favourites in their two earlier encounters, it is possible that by this stage of the competition they will already have secured qualification for the next round and perhaps even first place. This, in turn, could give Poland a chance to face a largely reserve lineup from that team. France’s substitutes would still be favourites against the White and Reds, but Poland’s chances would certainly increase in Euro 2024 betting markets.

Bookmakers’ predictions

Based on what we have already discussed in the earlier parts of the article, there is no doubt that Poland are being written off at the 2024 European Championship. Initial predictions show that the White and Reds are not favourites in any match at the tournament, and therefore our team’s chances of progressing from the group are very small. Nevertheless, let us hope that Michał Probierz’s players will be able to surprise experts and analysts. It is worth recalling that at the last major tournaments, Poland was generally highly rated, only for those campaigns to end in disappointment. This time, the situation is quite different, which may work in our team’s favour.

Long-term Euro 2024 betting markets also offer wagers on Poland winning the European Championship. As might be expected, however, the chances are not particularly high, and only four or five teams are rated below the Poles in this classification.

Betting carries the risk of addiction. Remember that it cannot be a way of life. In Poland, using illegal bookmakers’ services is prohibited; you may play only with operators licensed by the Ministry of Finance.

Mutual bets arranged via the Internet are accepted on the Company’s website at www.superbet.pl under a permit issued by the Ministry of Finance on 24 October 2019, no. PS4.6831.5.2019.

Author of the article: Mateusz Nowak – Senior Project Manager and editor-in-chief of the Zagranie website, a graduate of sports journalism and sports management at UAM, and a fan of football and tennis.