Łukasz Pawłowski, a political analyst from Miasto Ceramiki and president of the Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza, has won a high-profile dispute with bookmaker Totalbet. The court ordered the payment of approximately PLN 320,000, covering winnings from correctly predicted election bets, legal costs and accrued interest.
The dispute began in 2018, when local elections were held. Łukasz Pawłowski decided to use his knowledge when betting on the election results with bookmakers. “We began playing for small stakes with various bookmakers, and the offer from the then-new Totalbet caught our attention. It stood out with offers such as the possibility of betting on whether there would be a second round in large cities. We were also struck by the surprising odds. For example, by betting that there would be no second round in Warsaw, one could win 15 times the value of the ticket,” our fellow townsman told Rzeczpospolita.
The stakes were not high. The main aim was to test his own analyses and assess whether the odds offered by bookmakers reflected political reality. “The low initial value of the ticket shows that my goal was not to cynically exploit some loophole in the system. I could just as well have placed a ticket worth several thousand złoty and sent the bookmaker into bankruptcy,” the analyst stressed in an interview with the aforementioned outlet.
After the election results were announced, it turned out that some of the bets had been predicted correctly. In Warsaw, the scenario in which Rafał Trzaskowski won in the first round—without the need for a runoff against Patryk Jaki—came true. This was when the years-long conflict between the bettor and the bookmaker began.
The company refused to pay the winnings. As indicated by the arguments presented, suspicions arose regarding the way the players’ accounts were used. (“(…) The company determined that there was a suspicion that other players had made their accounts available to you.”).
From the beginning, Pawłowski disagreed with this position. He claimed that the real reason for refusing payment may have been the bookmaker’s incorrect assessment of the odds for political events. Ultimately, his arguments were accepted by the court.
On 19 May, after more than seven years of proceedings, the Warsaw-Praga Regional Court issued a judgment in the analyst’s favor. The court awarded him PLN 184,900 for the winning bets and PLN 14,700 in reimbursement of legal costs. After interest was added, the total amount to be paid to the winner is approximately PLN 320,000.
The judgment is not final. More about the case in Rzeczpospolita’s report.