In the year of the local government elections, on the IstotneInformacje.pl website and in the newspaper, we analyzed the political struggle for power in the city. Together with our readers, we considered the chances of individual parties and their leaders in the elections.
We began in February by identifying potential candidates for mayor. We published an article titled “Who for Mayor of Bolesławiec?”. No one had yet officially declared their candidacy. We selected three contenders for the mayoral seat: Dariusz Kwaśniewski, Bogusław Nowak and Piotr Roman. The November election confirmed that we had correctly identified the three most important players. They were precisely the candidates who won the most votes. In the final weeks of the campaign, both Nowak and Kwaśniewski were seriously preparing for a second round.
In February, we predicted not only who would matter in the election. We precisely identified the Achilles’ heels of the losing candidates. In Dariusz Kwaśniewski’s case, these were low name recognition, blandness and a lack of public image. Practically no one in the city knew him or knew exactly what he did. In Bogusław Nowak’s case, it was his artistic past, people associating him more with performance art than with a serious politician, and his lack of political and financial backing. We concluded the article with these words: “Piotr Roman is already mayor. Kwaśniewski and Nowak have a chance in this election, but only if they finally make up their minds. And start doing something at all to win voters’ support”.
Unfortunately, when they finally started doing something, it turned out to consist mainly of mistakes. We criticized the inept campaigns of Piotr Roman’s opponents in an article titled “Because the swimming pool was too small”. We wrote that they faced a difficult task because they had to convince voters that they would be better than the incumbent who had governed the city for eight years. In our assessment, they did so unprofessionally, relying on friendly advice and focusing mainly on criticizing investment projects in the city. Roman’s crushing victory confirmed our analysis one hundred percent.
In our articles, we also described the new opposition that had formed around Bogusław Nowak. In an article titled “A Colossus on Feet of Clay”, we wrote about the strong political ambitions of the leader of Gliniada, who was building political capital by organizing this popular event. In the article “How Do You Take Nowak?”, we predicted that the new, power-hungry opposition had no chance of weakening Piotr Roman’s support. However, it would take many votes away from Platforma Obywatelska, which was trying, rather unconvincingly, to position itself as Roman’s party opponent. Bogusław Nowak’s result confirmed our assessment. In the mayoral election, he placed three points ahead of the PO candidate.
Some of our predictions are still awaiting confirmation. We continue to wonder whether Gliniada 2011 will take place. This exceptional event depends on the defeated candidate, who is resting or has given up activities for the residents who did not support him. After his defeat in the election, Bogusław Nowak began withdrawing from public life. He probably gave up organizing the Gliniada 2010 photography exhibition. He definitely gave up organizing this year’s WOŚP finale. The Via Sudetica association, which he created with such dedication and of which he was the informal leader, is practically inactive. The president and vice-president are unaware of the association’s current tasks and continue referring people to Bogusław Nowak, who is only an ordinary member of Via Sudetica. The association’s website is not functioning. The information provided by the association’s treasurer on the Gliniada website is false. Former members, in order to carry out their tasks, are becoming involved in other organizations that guarantee them what Via Sudetica was supposed to do.
Based on our election experience, we also predict that in four years Bolesławiec’s Platforma Obywatelska will cease to exist. Nor will it retain the sphere of influence it managed to gain four years ago and miraculously defend in this election. More precisely, it will suffer minimal—but nevertheless real—losses. Too many people have been disappointed by the ineptitude of the party’s leaders. We propose handing power over to young wolves. This is the party’s only chance to keep them and modernize its party structures. Otherwise, they will leave, because this election has shown them that they can manage without Platforma. And things could be even worse for PO, because without it the young may fare better—the city has embraced a fashion for being “non-partisan”.
(information ii)